This report explores the economywide impacts of scaling agrifood value chain innovations across five countries—Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Honduras, Nigeria, and Uganda—through the lens of the CGIAR Initiative on Rethinking Food Markets and Value Chains for Inclusion and Sustainability. It uses IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model, a recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework, to assess how productivity-enhancing innovations affect not only direct beneficiaries but also broader national development outcomes, including GDP, employment, and poverty reduction.
The study examines six value chains, grouped into three categories: export-oriented (shrimp in Bangladesh, coffee in Honduras, sesame in Ethiopia), value chains with processing potential (milk in Uganda, fruits and vegetables in Nigeria), and a non-traded chain (beans in Honduras). For each, the report analyzes the direct impacts of innovations—such as improved inputs, digital quality testing, off-grid cold storage, and farmer training—and simulates their indirect spillover effects across sectors and households using economywide models.
Findings suggest that productivity growth, when scaled, can yield substantial benefits beyond the farm. In Uganda, combined investments in dairy (on-farm productivity, off-farm processing, and capital expansion) lifted over 11,000 people out of poverty. Nigeria’s tomato and fruit chains, though domestically oriented, also showed GDP and employment growth, especially with improved post-harvest handling and processing infrastructure. Export-oriented chains like coffee and shrimp demonstrated significant sectoral gains and foreign exchange earnings, though their impacts were more concentrated within the value chains.
The report emphasizes the importance of aligning micro-level value chain analysis with macroeconomic modeling to build a robust “development case” for scaling innovations. It highlights that innovations often produce indirect effects via labor markets, consumption patterns, and inter-sectoral linkages. For example, investments in traceability or digital tools can have ripple effects across transport, trade, and service sectors. The study also underscores potential trade-offs—such as resource competition—that must be managed through targeted policy and investment design.
By simulating a range of innovation scenarios, the report offers evidence to inform public investment strategies, donor programming, and policy dialogue. It contributes to the understanding of how agrifood innovations, when strategically scaled, can support structural transformation, economic growth, and social inclusion. These findings are directly relevant to achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to poverty alleviation, food security, decent work, and sustainable economic development.