To fill the data and policy modeling void, in collaboration with the Foresight and Metrics Initiative, an integrated system of global and country Agri-Food Market and Policy Analysis Models (AMPAM) is developed to assess potential for and trade-offs associated with the scaling of interventions and innovations that create jobs, boost incomes, and reduce environmental footprints along food value chains.
The databases of AMPAM and the scenario analyses conducted with AMPAM will be made accessible through KISM. The database will be compiled based on currently disjointed and fragmented data sources and reconciled using a comprehensive and systematic socio-economic and environmental accounting framework for the agri-food system. Using this methodology, it will be able to measure the economic and social importance of food markets and assess environmental impacts from farm to fork, substantially expanding and integrating existing CGIAR work in this area, including IFPRI’s AGGDP+ and AGEMP+ project and IFPRI’s greenhouse gas emissions database and measures of policy support to agriculture and food sectors by main food commodities of the AgIncentives consortium (FAO-IFPRI-IDB-OECD-World Bank). Detailed by food commodities and value chains and across countries, the AMPAM database will allow researchers to calculate indicators on the shares of different segments of the food system in value added, total food consumption, international trade, employment by types of worker, wage and other factor incomes, GHG emissions, and other environmental footprints. These indicators can help decision-makers identify inequalities, the potential for employment and income generation, and sources of environmental pressures across the food system.
The AMPAM model system will integrate three types of modleing frameworks that can support decision-makers in assessing the full potential, scalability, market opportunities, priorities for and trade-offs associated with incentive schemes, and investments and innovations.
Concretely, this initiative will develop and integrate the following tools: (a) food market potential and demand analysis; (b) value chain and policy and investment needs analysis; and (c) economy-wide and food-systemwide investment priority and impact analysis of interventions for inclusive and sustainable food systems, improving the existing economy-wide modeling frameworks for global and country-level food market and value chain analysis, MIRAGRODEP and RIAPA.
The initiative will also provide scenario analysis at the global and country level of options for repurposing existing agricultural support in ways conducive for scaling food-sytemwide interventions and innovations and optimizing benefits in terms of inclusion and sustainability. This scenario analysis will leverage and enhance analyses undertaken by IFPRI and partners using the MIRAGRODEP global modeling framework.