To fill the data gap, in collaboration with the Foresight and Metrics Initiative, a new, integrated global Agri-Food Economy Database (AFED) linked to modeling tools will be developed to assess potential for and trade-offs associated with the scaling of interventions and innovations that create jobs, boost incomes, and reduce environmental footprints along food value chains.
To fill the data and policy modeling void, in collaboration with the Foresight and Metrics Initiative, an integrated system of global and country Agri-Food Market and Policy Analysis Models (AMPAM) is developed to assess potential for and trade-offs associated with the scaling of interventions and innovations that create jobs, boost incomes, and reduce environmental footprints along food value chains.
The databases of AMPAM and the scenario analyses conducted with AMPAM will be made accessible through KISM. The database will be compiled based on currently disjointed and fragmented data sources and reconciled using a comprehensive and systematic socio-economic and environmental accounting framework for the agri-food system. Using this methodology, it will be able to measure the economic and social importance of food markets and assess environmental impacts from farm to fork, substantially expanding and integrating existing CGIAR work in this area, including IFPRI’s AGGDP+ and AGEMP+ project and IFPRI’s greenhouse gas emissions database and measures of policy support to agriculture and food sectors by main food commodities of the AgIncentives consortium (FAO-IFPRI-IDB-OECD-World Bank). Detailed by food commodities and value chains and across countries, the AMPAM database will allow researchers to calculate indicators on the shares of different segments of the food system in value added, total food consumption, international trade, employment by types of worker, wage and other factor incomes, GHG emissions, and other environmental footprints. These indicators can help decision-makers identify inequalities, the potential for employment and income generation, and sources of environmental pressures across the food system.
The AMPAM model system will integrate three types of modleing frameworks that can support decision-makers in assessing the full potential, scalability, market opportunities, priorities for and trade-offs associated with incentive schemes, and investments and innovations.
Concretely, this initiative will develop and integrate the following tools: (a) food market potential and demand analysis; (b) value chain and policy and investment needs analysis; and (c) economy-wide and food-systemwide investment priority and impact analysis of interventions for inclusive and sustainable food systems, improving the existing economy-wide modeling frameworks for global and country-level food market and value chain analysis, MIRAGRODEP and RIAPA.
The initiative will also provide scenario analysis at the global and country level of options for repurposing existing agricultural support in ways conducive for scaling food-sytemwide interventions and innovations and optimizing benefits in terms of inclusion and sustainability. This scenario analysis will leverage and enhance analyses undertaken by IFPRI and partners using the MIRAGRODEP global modeling framework.
AGINCENTIVES
The AgIncentives Consortium brings together data on agricultural protection—and taxation—for countries accounting for 90% of global agricultural output. Policies directly affect incentives that farmers benefit from or face and affect not only the countries using these measures but also the level and volatility of world prices of food and agricultural products. Before the impacts of these policies can be understood, they must be carefully measured and presented on a comparable basis. By working together, our team of five member international organizations provide unprecedented coverage of these vitally important measures. The AgIncentives website allows users to visually compare data on almost 90 countries and 70 products over 14 years. Download data in CSV format to perform your own analyses.
MIRAGRODEP
MIRAGRODEP is a global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model based on MIRAGE (Modelling International Relations under Applied General Equilibrium). The model was developed and improved with the support of The African Growth and Development Policy Modeling Consortium (AGRODEP). It is a multi-region, multi-sector, dynamically recursive CGE model. MIRAGE was initially developed at CEPII and was devoted to trade policy analysis; this original model was used at IFPRI prior the development of the MIRAGRODEP version and continues to be used in CEPII (France) and by various international and academic institutions around the world. The core MIRAGRODEP model is an open-source resource distributed by the AGRODEP network, with training sessions held periodically to teach researchers how to use the model.
RIAPA
The Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) data and modeling system is IFPRI’s primary tool for forward-looking, economywide country-level analysis, serving as a simulation laboratory for experimenting with policies, investments, or economic shocks. Figure 1 is a representation of the structure of the RIAPA system. At its core is IFPRI’s standard recursive-dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, an economywide simulation tool. IFPRI’s static and dynamic economywide models incorporate flexible behavioral features, such as nested production functions, imperfect substitution of imported commodities, and linear expenditure systems of consumer demand. Consumers and producers maximize utility and profits based on factor and product prices, which adjust endogenously to establish market equilibrium. In the dynamic version, population growth and urbanization are set exogenously, affecting labor supplies, while sectoral capital accumulation is endogenously determined based on past investments.